How black is black on an LCD? Try the iPhone Black Level Experiment...

If you are using an LCD, how black is black? Try this experiment.

If you have an iPhone, turn it off. Go into a pitch black room (I mean PITCH black--no light leaks--totally sealed).

Then, turn on your iPhone. The Apple logo comes up--you can just cover that with your thumb.

The bright gray glow you see emitting from your iPhone? That is "black" on an LCD. But it turns out its not really that black is it?

In fact, its such a bright gray, a fully "black" iPhone display can illuminate a dark room.

This is the problem with using generic LCD's for color correction. Their black level isn't black enough, so your colors get washed out and muddied.

Try it sometime...

StudioBuilder 04.30.2009

Hope you had a good NAB week. We've got a few things cooking for this week--every one of which will save you time and money in production and post.

AJA KI PRO PRE-ORDERS

The AJA Ki Pro is a tapeless video recording device that records high-quality Apple ProRes 422 QuickTime files onto computer-friendly media. Because it features SD/HD-SDI, HDMI, and analog inputs, you can interface with virtually any type of camera you might own or rent.

AJA's new Ki Pro was a hit at NAB. If you haven't seen the Ki Pro in action yet, take a look at this video: http://www.aja.com/products/ki-pro/

This new device is definitely going to streamline the time from production-to-post. I think of some new application for the device on a daily basis.

The Ki Pro is $3995 and AJA is already accepting reseller orders for this unit to ship this summer. Like other vendors, we're accepting pre-orders, too. However, we're making a Silverado order a little more worth your while.

With every Ki Pro pre-order between now and 5/15/09, Silverado will add a 250 Gb Ki Module at no charge--a $265 value.

You can place your AJA Ki Pro pre-orders here:

http://silverado.cc/shop/product.php?productid=1120

GEARNEX GEARED HEADS A HIT AT NAB

You know you have an awesome product when Jarred Land walks up to it and says "This thing is badass..."

We showed the Gearnex Geared Head at NAB to rave reviews at FCPUG and REDUser. The units also got plenty of play at the AJA and Panasonic booths.

While the NAB special of $3995 is now over, we have a post-NAB window where the price is $4995. That is a $1000 savings over the $5995 retail price.

http://silverado.cc/shop/product.php?productid=1118

Use the code GEARNEXRED (in the checkout notes section) through 5/3/09 for a free swivel/tilt arm.

MOVE UP TO 800GB TAPE WITH CACHE-A PRIME-CACHE LTO-4

We showed the new Cache-A LTO-4 product at REDUser 2009 last week in Las Vegas to a lot of very interested data managers.

One of the neatest things about this product is backwards compatibility with current LTO-3A archives. If you have a library of LTO-3A material, then the new Cache-A LTO-4 is the perfect way to move up to 800 GB tape, while retaining compatibility with your existing archives.

Units ship in mid-May. Pre-order your Prime-Cache today and we'll throw in 4.0 Tb in free LTO-4 tapes and a Pelican travel case at no charge.

http://silverado.cc/shop/product.php?productid=1119

SILVERADO TWITTER CONTESTS

We'll be building up our Twitter followers over the next few months with some fun contests. When we get to 500 followers, we're going to give away a free Blackmagic UltraScope.

But! In the meantime, we'll be doing fun giveaways at random. We got a copy of Shake v4.0 that we're itching to give away. So, follow our tweets and you might just get lucky:

Silverado Twitter [Link]

SILVERADO PRODUCTION UPDATE

We think its more important than ever to stay involved in production and post. There are a lot of vendors you can buy from, but how many of them are just order takers?

At Silverado, we support projects as small as music videos all the way up to feature films. We recently completed editorial and color correction on a RED video that involved a Gulfstream jet, two Lamborghinis--all for a budget that would shock the senses.

We're scheduled as the RED rental house for a feature project in Philadelphia along with assembly editorial and color correction, and in June we have a feature starting work right here in Folsom which we are going to support with cameras and editorial.

What does this mean for you? If we sell it at Silverado, its generally because we've tested it in the field and feel confident about the products capabilities. If you ever wander through our webstore and wonder why we don't sell something--its because we aren't the Wal-Mart of professional video.

We don't want to sell everything--just the best products that work. We think that the best place to determine that is in actual use in the field and the edit suite doing real work.

If you ever want to stop by and see the suite and our reel, please let me know at torrey@silverado.cc and we be thrilled to accommodate a private showing.

NEXT TIME:

More updates on NAB releases--too much stuff there to put into one update.

Also--WWDC is around the corner so we should start to hear rumblings about Final Cut Studio 3 updates.

tl

Digital Cinema Society NAB Video Wrap-Up

Digital Cinema Society posts massive video log wrap-up of NAB:

DCS Video Wrap-Up of NAB [LINK]

liveTweets at NAB

Follow all of our NAB activities posted at Twitter:

Silverado NAB liveTweets [Link]

Hardware Advisory - Replace your Xserve RAID's Immediately

When they were introduced a few years ago, the Apple Xserve RAID was a breakthrough in RAID price and performance. Most other RAID products of the time were significantly more expensive and nothing else even came close to the level of performance offered to Apple users.

Fast forward to today. Untold thousands of Apple Xserve RAID's have been deployed and are in use across the world today. And many facilities still rely on these machines to safely store their critical data and archives.

Its our opinion these devices should be replaced as soon as possible.

One of the most important aspects of using any RAID device is the ability to replace a failed hard drive and restore a RAID 5 volume to full status. You can lose one hard drive in a RAID 5 and have a degraded volume, but if you lose another you have lost all your data. It is not recoverable.

Our recent checks have determined there are no further Apple Drive Modules being manufactured. Further, there are essentially zero remaining drives available as "stock" within the distribution channel (meaning there are none sitting "on a shelf" which can be overnighted to clients...)

Additionally, anecdotal checks have also determined that stocks of Apple Drive Modules available for warranty replacement via AppleCare are fully depleted. If you have an Xserve RAID covered under an AppleCare agreement, there is no guarantee that you can get a replacement drive if you have a failure.

We've talked to a few clients that are still relying heavily on Xserve RAID's and have stocked up on Apple Drive Modules over the last year in order to extend the life of their direct-attached and Xsan-based systems. However, if you don't have multiple spare drives on hand, there will come a time when your drives will begin to fail and you won't have an option for data recovery.

One of our contacts has indicated they have seen failure rates of one drive per week in some of their oldest Xserve RAID systems. These folks are actively looking to migrate to a new storage platform.

What are the best options for replacing these older systems?

We really like the new Active Storage XRAID™ and XRAID™ ES platform. We've highlighted the XRAID platform before, but the XRAID ES is a new product recently released and it has some very compelling features.

The XRAID™ ES is available in 4TB and 16TB configurations, with the 16TB configuration offering $ .67 cents per GB cost. This new, affordable, high-performance storage solution is ideal for business-critical, science, and education use in Apple-based infrastructures, and complements Active’s existing product line with a really low entry cost with future expandability.

The new Active Storage XRAID™ ES employs the same level of per-port performance, reliability and ease of management (using the native Mac OS X storage management suite found in the original Active Storage XRAID™), yet offers a lower-cost configuration taking advantage of a single high-throughput RAID controller and business-class hard drives with smaller read/write cache.

Performance of the Active Storage XRAID™ ES is also impressive — offering up to 744MB/s in a RAID 5 configuration. The Active Storage XRAID™ ES provides redundant power, triple-redundant cooling and redundant Fibre Channel connections and is managed using the same powerful, yet easy to use management tools of the original Active Storage XRAID™. The ES differs from the original Active Storage XRAID™ by utilizing a single high throughput RAID controller and business-class hard drives using a smaller cache size. These changes result in a very cost-effective and robust RAID solution ideal for business-class applications starting at a ground-breaking $6,999 US MSRP.

The Active Storage XRAID™ ES is also available in 16TB configuration providing unmatched value at $9,999 US MSRP.

You can get Active Storage XRAID™ and XRAID™ ES products at Silverado's store here:

Active Storage XRAID™ and XRAID™ ES at Silverado [LINK]

Government do-gooders strike again: California to consider ban on large TV's

California politicians are crazy. Just mad stupid.

In the midst of an economic crisis, they are simultaneously raising people's taxes while proposing to take away some of the best tools of a retailers livelihood:

California to consider ban on large TV's [LINK]

What does the consumer get in return? Less choice and poorer quality.

Sales of high-end products such as large sets drive revenue. Revenue pays taxes. Taxes fund projects. However, I don't think that politicians see this equation very clearly.

It should be mandatory that these people spend a modicum of time in some sort of business entity before being elected. Lack of understanding about where revenue comes from is currently destroying California state government.

tl

Everything is so quiet...

Is it just me? Or is the silence before NAB positively deafening?

What do you think?

tl

Spring Fire Sale...

Got a few things to clear out before NAB:

Silverado Spring Fire Sale [LINK]

tl

2009 Update for Apple Pro Apps 4-Seat

I mentioned this first one in my last blog post. Its been out for a while, but for workgroups using Xsan--the 2006 Apple Pro Apps 4-seat Xsan document is still a fantastic primer for building a small Xsan workgroup:

Apple Pro Apps 4-Seat Xsan [PDF]

However, the tech is pretty old, so we thought we'd take a stab at adding some new tech and including a few things that weren't available when the 2006 doc was released:

Pro Apps 4-Seat Update for 2009 [PDF]

Curious to what else you might want to see in a system like this...

Original 2006 Apple Pro Apps 4-Seat Xsan Doc

We're updating the 2006 Apple Pro Apps 4-Seat Xsan document. For reference, you can get the original document here:

2006 Apple Pro Apps 4-Seat Xsan Quick Setup Guide

Its still an amazing document--even if its a little crusty in terms of old technology. In terms of building your own 4-seat Xsan, you can do no better than this free document.

Stay tuned for our next post.  I'll take the components of this doc and fully update them for equipment available now in 2009. There are also a few holes to plug in terms of available support, training, and other items like VPN routers--we'll plug those with the best available gear available today.

Content! Content! Content!

Awesome content trumps technology. Even when its shot on a cellphone:

Unauthorized Trader Joe's commercial

Free NAB pass...provided by Panasonic

Our friends at Panasonic would like you to attend their booth at NAB--and they'll spring for the pass:

http://www.nabshow.com/2009/attendee/packagesFees.asp
Exhibitor ID: 524
Pass Code:LV2174

tl

SSD's in the Real World...or how I plan to save $2000 a year on three minutes a day

Solid-state drives (or SSD for short) are becoming the new rage in computing. You can get a good read on the background of the SSD here:

Wikipedia entry on solid-state drives

Over the last year or so, the capacity of drives has gone way up and the price has come down significantly. They've come down so much that we obtained three of the 80 GB Intel X-25M drives and tossed them into a Mac Pro as an experiment to see how fast they worked.

We were fairly shocked. I've never seen a single internal boot volume working at over 700 MB/s (not megabits...megaBYTES). Ever.

I was so impressed that I set out to conduct another experiment. This would be a real-world experiment: moving my entire MacBook Pro from a regular 2.5" SATA hard drive to an SSD.

Would it be worth the trouble in time and money to make the move? Could someone justify the expense of an SSD now versus waiting till later when the prices fell more?

I had to wait a little while until the 160 Gb SSD's came out from Intel. There was just too much stuff I kept on my laptop to pare down to less than 130 Gb of critical info--so in the meantime I read up on my friend Lloyd Chambers' excellent technical primer on using Intel SSD's in both MacBook Pro and Mac Pro.

I received my 160 Gb Intel SSD earlier this week. I copied off the boot drive to the SSD with Mike Bombich's fantastic tool Carbon Copy Cloner. Then I set about conducting tests with the primary drive before I moved over the the SSD.

Rather than re-invent the wheel with Lloyd's technical analysis, these are my anecdotal thoughts on my own experience with running an Intel SSD in a MacBook Pro.

The test system is my 2.5 Ghz Intel Core 2 Duo-equipped MacBook Pro with 2 Gb of RAM running Mac OS X Leopard 10.5.6.

I was tempted to do the tests from a clean installation, but this is a real world test. I didn't have time to un-license and deauthorize all my apps and then reauthorize fresh builds on the new system. I figured most other folks wouldn't have the time to do that either--so I opted to do a clone of my hard drive.

These were essentially boot-time tests. I didn't want to make any major file changes to docs or anything else on the old drive since I was going to start using the SSD permanently--so I only tested the boot times along with conducting some other interesting tests. Here are the apps I booted:

Apple iCal
Apple Numbers
Apple Pages
Apple iPhoto
Apple iTunes
Adobe Photoshop
Adobe Illustrator
Apple Final Cut Pro
Microsoft Word
Apple Safari
Apple Mail

I also tested system boot time and shutdown. Finally, I ran AJA System Test to determine drive performance.

Here is the chart of the raw performance I got between my old hard drive and the new SSD. Time is in seconds.

To say that this workflow is fast is a complete understatement. Everything is fast--my Mac finally feels like it works as fast as I think.

Response is instantaneous. Boot times on some of these applications is nothing short of ridiculous (Booting iCal and Numbers in 1-2 seconds?)

However, what really surprised me was the performance tests I ran with the help of AJA System Test.

With the hard drive installed, I ran System Test on a standard 1.0 Gb test using SD sized frames. With nothing else running. I got writes of 43.6 MB/s and reads of 52.2 MB/s. Very respectable all around. I then loaded up iTunes and let it start playing a track. I reran the tests with results of 38.9 MB/s and 41.2 MB/s. A drop of around 20% in performance, but still not horrible.

However, I then started Safari and did a 15-tab load--then I ran the same AJA test. On the hard drive the writes plummeted to 12 MB/s and the reads went to 12.8 MB/s. I thought I did the test wrong because an 80% performance hit didn't sound right. I reran the test--with the same results.

With more apps running, I got the performance down to around 4.2 MB/s sec for reads and writes.

Yuck. No more hard drives for me--that kind of performance sucks.

I swapped the HD for the SSD and performed the same tests.

With nothing loaded, we got writes of 62.2 MB/s and reads of 120.8 MB/s. With this test alone, we had already increased writes by 20% and doubled the read performance. The next test took me by surprise and I had to run it three times.

Performance went up when I did the iTunes test! I expected a performance hit when I launched and played iTunes, but the writes went to 68.7 MB/s and the reads went to 122.1 MB/s. I tried it three times--the reads and writes were all higher while iTunes was running versus when there were absolutely no apps running in the background.

I can't explain it--and I doubt it has anything to do with iTunes--but it was very strange to see drive performance actually increase when placed under increased load.

Finally, I ran the 15-tab Safari test and expected performance to fall apart. It didn't.

While iTunes was playing and Safari was loading 15 tabs, SSD writes were at 63.2 MB/s and reads pegged 121 MB/s. If there is an engineer out there who can explain why the SSD works faster when under load, I am all ears...

I figured all those time savings netted me an additional 3-4 minutes daily. At our lowest hourly bill rate, I figure on recouping nearly $2000 per year on the time I reclaimed.

Okay...okay...that is kind of ridiculous, isn't it?

It would be if the time savings was just from booting apps. However, the kind of performance achieved with this new SSD has added a level of productivity that I haven't had before. I can switch back-and-forth between windows and apps with zero lag time. Opening files is nearly instantaneous. Accessing websites is about twice as fast since the disk caching is way faster. Reading my mail and synchronizing my mailbox between the laptop and my SMTP servers is much faster than it was before.

And the dreaded Spinning Beach Ball has totally vanished.

I conservatively estimate I'll be working 10-20% faster than I was before. That alone is worth the price of the drive for me. Is the speed worth it to you? You have to be the judge of that.

Here are my new recommendations for the fastest possible system (either MacBook Pro or Mac Pro)

1. Get as much RAM as your budget will allow
2. Get the fastest processor possible, too.
3. Equip your system with an SSD-based boot drive (make sure its an Intel X-25...) If you can afford to, put in two or three in the Mac Pro.

These three recommendations will get you the fastest available Mac.

One more note--you can't get it from Apple. They don't have the Intel X-25 drives in their systems. If you want yours X-25 equipped, let me know at info@silverado.cc

tl

50% off Sony 4k projectors...

Sony Digital Cinema Systems has an abundance of SXRD® ultra-high resolution 4k projection equipment now available at a tremendous discount - 50% off MSRP.

Each model is fully refurbished, and carries the full Sony warranty and service options available with new A-stock models. B-stock accessories are also available to configure full 4K systems at a great value -- now priced at 10% below MSRP.

If you have considered purchasing a Sony 4K projection system, now's the time. Systems can be purchased outright or leased over time. Here are the available models:

Sony SRX-R105 SXRD 4k Projector
5,000 Lumen
MSRP $68,000.00
Sale Price $34,000.00
Lease as low as $789 over 60 mos.

Sony SRX-R110 SXRD 4k Projector
10,000 Lumen
MSRP $98,550.00
Sale Price $49,275.00
Lease as low as $1145 over 60 mos.

Sony SRX-S105 SXRD 4k Projector
5,000 Lumen W/DVI
MSRP $78,000.00
Sale Price $39,000.00
Lease as low as $905 over 60 mos.

Sony SRX-S110 SXRD 4k Projector
10,000 Lumen W/DVI
MSRP $102,000.00
Sale Price $51,000.00
Lease as low as $1160 over 60 mos.

Members of Silverado's StudioBuilder list are also eligible for the following rebates when ordered before February 13th.

Sony SRX-R105: $1,000
Sony SRX-R110: $2,000
Sony SRX-S105: $1,500
Sony SRX-S110: $2,500

We are able to provide a free replacement Xenon lamp ($1675 for 5,000 lumens and $2100 for 10,000 lumens) for the first two projectors ordered.

These systems require accessories like lamps and lenses which are based on your facility. We'll need to determine which items are needed for your installation, but the discounts on those items are huge, too.

Please contact us directly at orders@silverado.cc for ordering information. More details on each machine can be found below:

Sony SXRD projectors at Silverado

We've been told by Sony that all projectors in this class will be gone by March. There may never again be another opportunity to own Sony 4k gear at such reduced cost.

Torrey
----------------------------
Torrey Loomis
President & CEO - Silverado Systems, Inc.
Outfitter to the World's Foremost Apple Professionals
2600 East Bidwell Street, Suite 280
Folsom, CA 95630
(916) 760-0032 • FAX (916) 404-5258
torrey@silverado.cc
http://www.Silverado.cc

What do you want to see in the new Final Cut Studio 3?

Apple is on a new rotation with their product releases now that they have purged tradeshows from their calendar with the termination of their presence at Macworld.

With that in mind, its reasonable to think that Final Cut Studio 3 could be released any time between now and NAB. I think it would be silly for them to release it after NAB, but Apple definitely doesn't play by anyone else's rulebook...

So...with that in mind--what do you want to see in the new Final Cut Studio 3?

Please opine gratuitously in the comments below.

tl

Amazing new Panasonic monitor...

Folks,

Check out this awesome new monitor from Panasonic: the BT-LH2550

Panasonic BT-LH2550 25.5 Multi-Format Color LCD Production Monitor with native 1920 x 1200 IPS Panel

Its got a color gamut larger than 709, so its going to be awesome for HD-color work. Plus, native 1920 x 1200 resolution for 1:1 reproduction of detail without scaling.

Here is all the nitty gritty:

* 1920 x 1200 resolution (WUXGA)
* Six color space settings for use in print to digital graphics to HD video: SMPTE, EBU, ITU-R BT.709, Adobe 2.2, Adobe 1.8, D-Cinema
* Wider color space than CRT models with two new color space modes Adobe gamma 1.8, Adobe gamma 2.2 and D-Cinema gamma 2.6
* Wide 178 horizontal and vertical viewing angles
* New split-screen function plays dual live pictures (1 each: SDI, DVI, Component or Video)
* Calibration hardware interface for chroma and luma (with built-in Application Software)
* Built-in waveform monitor and vectorscope functions from SDI (HD/SD) input (representing all picture lines)
* Exceptionally accurate color reproduction and improved contrast and black levels
* Three-dimensional 10-bit 3D LUT offering virtually the same color
* Offers a variety of professional functions including split-screen/freeze frame (live input vs. freeze frame), marker and blue-only, and cross hatch overlay display
* Time code and closed caption capable (closed caption on video input only)
* Embedded audio decoder on board (via Headphone Jack)
* 8 Channel audio level meters
* Cine-gamma Film-Rec compensation function for use with cameras such as the Panasonic AJ-HDC27 VariCam HD Cinema Camera and the new AJ-HPX3700 and
AJ-HPX2700 P2 HD VariCam camcorders
* Inputs/outputs include: DVI-D input and two HD-SDI/SDI Auto switching inputs with switched output, component video (Y/Pb/Pr), RGB, PC RGB, external sync, RS-232C/GPI remote control terminals, speaker and headphone jack
* Five programmable user buttons for easy access to functions
* Desk stand included; compatible with VESA mounts (100mm x 100mm or 200mm)
* Separate 24 Volt AC Adapter supplied; AC cord (5.58 ft.) and 4-pin XLR DC cord (6.56 ft.) included
* One-year warranty (parts & labor)

tl

Silverado Expansion in 2009--WE NEED YOU

A little history about Silverado. We are now in our 7th year of operations. Every year we seem to grow more and more.

However, in 2009 we're going to take the growth to a completely new level. We've defined a massive core market--the professional broadcast and digital cinema industry--and our vendor relationships are second-to-none. We're going to take that momentum and redouble our growth efforts over the next 18 months.

We're going to be expanding our local presence to upwards of 25 different markets across the country. To do that, we'll need a lot of help. We aren't looking for employees, but people who want to run an entire wing of Silverado in their market.

This will take someone who--by profession--is a broadcast or digital cinema pro. You'll not only need experience, but you'll need to be a savvy marketer and be able to effectively network with the media community in your region.

If you are that type of person--and you are looking for a change of pace from production and editorial to trusted advisor--we want to talk to you. It will be your shop and your territory.

Here are the markets we are working towards in our initial roll-out:

New York
Los Angeles
Chicago
Philadelphia
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose
Dallas-Ft. Worth
Boston-Manchester
Washington DC
Atlanta
Houston
Detroit
Tampa
Phoenix-Prescott
Seattle-Tacoma
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale
Cleveland-Akron
Denver
Orlando-Daytona Beach
Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
Portland
Baltimore
Indianapolis

If you are interested in joining Silverado not as an employee--but as a partner--please send me a note to torrey@silverado.cc and I'll forward more information your way.

CFAA tonight...

Important advocacy meeting tonight at Capital Film Arts:

Please join local filmmakers and friends or an important meeting of the Capital Film Arts Alliance
ADVOCACY AND INCENTIVES FOR THE FILMMAKING INDUSTRY

Tuesday, January 20th at 7:00 PM
Art Institute of Sacramento

2850 Gateway Oaks Dr.
Sacramento (I-5 to west El Camino)
Free for all

Capital Film Arts Alliance

Got one thing right...the rest wrong...

I got one thing right about Macworld. Steve Jobs was a no-show.

I was pretty sure that if he looked anywhere near the way he did at the last WWDC, the stock would fall 5% just for spite.

So, I think I was right on that count. I was wrong on everything else.

No new displays, Mac Pros, no iPhone anything...

Nada. Zip. Zilch. The announcements were total buzz kill.

I will say this--Phil Schiller did an excellent job at taking the keynote helm. He had very hard shoes to fill and I think he did a fine job.

That said--two software announcements and a laptop speed bump? Ouch...

But then again...I have to take that back, too. Those were my first impressions when I read about the announcements, but when I watched them being demonstrated I was really impressed.

It was appropriate to show the software. The demo of the new iMovie '09 had me saying a few times "gee, I wish that was a feature in Final Cut..."

And iWork.com is great! The kind of collaboration that product will enable is huge--its a fantastic way to share and work on docs.

So, a mixed bag in all. Neat products were released, but nothing over-the-top and it was definitely a let-down to see Apple leave Macworld with a whimper, not a bang.

tl

Business analysis of Steve Jobs latest health info...

Not that I am a callous person in any way, but I don't really pay much attention to other people's health matters unless they are a close friend or family.

My health is private, so yours should be private, too. In the Internet age, there are way too many things for snoops to pry on these days--and your health should be the last of them.

So, its with business in mind that I comment about Steve Jobs current state:

Post on Steve Jobs health from Apple

The letter flat out states Jobs isn't leaving Apple as CEO. Regardless of his weight loss, he probably feels fine.

So, if he feels OK then why did he drop out of Macworld 09? Simple--he probably doesn't look good.

If he has been losing the kind of weight he mentioned, his figure is probably fairly gaunt--so why bother with a repeat of the rampant speculation ala WWDC 2008?

Tons of flacks mentioned that Jobs' cancer looked like it had returned, but Apple attributed his appearance to a "common bug." However, the precedent had been set--if Jobs shows up looking bad, comments will be made. And the stock price may suffer.

Easy solution is to have Phil Schiller take over this year's keynote while Jobs gets his weight back.

But...without Jobs--people simply think Apple doesn't have anything to show. And while that may have been true in the past at a couple of keynotes, it doesn't seem likely for this one. Here are some of the possibilities:

New iMac

New Mac Mini

New LED Display

New 17" MacBook Pro

New Mac Pro

Updates on Snow Leopard

Plus one that Andy Ihnatko is talking about:

Super secret Apple product to be released at Macworld?

So where is Steve Jobs in all the product-release madness? Again, its simple--he's not there and he won't be there.

Times are changing. Apple is not doing trade shows anymore--they see WAY more people in a week at their retail stores than they see at Macworld. Plus, with access to the Internet--even people who can't make it to an Apple Store have access to way more information than anyone could have by making it to a Macworld show.

Jobs can't run Apple forever--this is just part of the separation process for the Apple community. Even if he is there for another 10 years, the community has to accept that it won't be business as usual at Apple going forward. Best to get used to it now.

While Apple is Steve Jobs, and vice versa--it can't always be that way. Part of the mystique that is Apple is the mysteriousness of Mr. Jobs. But while there may have been a time when it was flattering, the cult of personality which has been built up around him can't be a pleasant way to live.

And now this obsession with All Things Steve is so bad that when he gets sick, it affects the stock price?

The board of directors can't allow a company like Apple to externally manipulated by forces outside their control. Apple has to be bigger than one man.

So, MWSF 2009 is Apple taking the leap to show that its more than Steve Jobs. The Keynote? Performed by others. The One Last Thing? Done by someone else.

My educated guess: Phil Schiller will do a great job on the keynote. And Steve Jobs will not make an appearance at all.