Monday, May 18, 2009

Official Silverado Predictions for WWDC

Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference kicks off Monday, June 9th 2009 at 10 AM.

Here is what I think is likely happening this year at WWDC:
  • Snow Leopard--released? I'd have to say no. But release date announced? Yes--I'd call this at 100%. Apple recently froze the API's for Snow Leopard, so there shouldn't be much more under-the-hood work to do there.
  • iPhone OS 3.0--I'd have to say this is 80% yes. Why not 100% There has been a lot of chatter about background apps--and whether the policies that will govern the behavior of those applications has been decided upon by Apple.
  • New iPhone hardware--I'd say 100% yes on announcement. 50/50 on shipping. If OS 3.0 is delayed, you can guarantee the new phone will be delayed as well.
  • New iTablet or iPad?--Maybe... I'd give this a 25% shot
Here is what I think is NOT happening at WWDC:
  • No new Pro Apps (no Final Cut Studio, Final Cut Server, Aperture, Logic, Color, etc...)
Why? There are a few reasons.

First--WWDC has never been a creative show--its a development show. Correct me if I am wrong, but no Apple Pro App has ever debuted at WWDC. This is totally the wrong crowd for this type of introduction.

Second, the most logical prior opportunity for Final Cut Studio to debut would have been NAB last month. However, that didn't happen. I think that is because the new pro software is based much more heavily on Snow Leopard than people think. And 10.6 hadn't deployed yet, so there is no use in hyping features based on other software that can't be discussed yet.

Finally, why do two major launches at the same time? Snow Leopard is big enough, why complicate the mix with doing two simultaneous introductions? Remember the Mobile Me launch? One fumbled product release was bad enough. However, doing two at the same time--one to a hypercritical professional audience and the other to dozens of millions of customers--is a potential PR blunder if one or the other should stumble.

Last--will Steve Jobs show up to do "one last thing." No clue one way or the other, but I'd like to think so.


Anonymous said...

No new Pro Apps?? I am beginning to feel neglected.

J Simoneau said...

Predictions seem dead on

Anonymous said...

I never understood why anyone thought new ProApps would be at WWDC. You're right: it is just not the place for them. When Apple announced the end of their participation in MacWorld they said they were shifting to smaller, more focused announcement events on their own timetable. It would seem pretty odd to talk about ProApps at a crowd that wants them some Snow Leopard and iPhone 3.0 goodness.

With Adobe (and now even Avid!!) becoming so much more transparent and customer-focused, the fact that FCP is controlled by Apple is more of a liability than ever.

J Simoneau said...

Pro apps would never be released at a WWDC. I thought they released Studio Displays once if I remember right? I haven't heard any recent rumors of it this time but it is long overdue and would be very welcomed from me... As long as they are not "glossy" that is.

Dustyn Kurt Gobler said...

I disagree.

Unlike Tiger and Leopard which had big "show off" features, Spotlight and Time Machine respectively, Snow Leopard doesn't really have anything to show off to a packed auditorium. Since most of Snow Leopard's big features are under-the-hood, what better way to show off Snow Leopard than by showing off how damn fast they run the new Motion!

cecrask said...

Any comments about Quicktime X?